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The Aemet does not rule out a cold wave due to the possible “rupture of the polar vortex”

The spokesman for the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Rubén del Campo, warned this Friday that “a cold wave on the European continent in the first part of winter cannot be ruled out” given the possibility of “a stratospheric polar vortex breakhigher than usual.

According to the spokesman, a break in the stratospheric polar vortex could occur in the coming weeks, with the consequent release of cold air confined in the Arctic towards low latitudes and possible subsequent effects in terms of a more continuous rainfall regime in our country.

“The pieces of the atmospheric puzzle fit with a scenario of a possible stratospheric polar vortex rupture, but it is not yet certain that it will happen,” he warned.


Looking ahead to next week, uncertainty is very high.  The forecasts, as a whole, seem to point to the formation of a high-latitude blockade, centered between Scandinavia and Russia.  This could favor a corridor through which cold continental air could invade Europe, even affecting Spain.

And in the event that it does happen, it is still impossible to specify whether this outflow of cold air from the arctic latitudes would give rise to a cold wave in Spain or in Europe, he said. “We can’t know yet because It would be necessary to see in which area this eviction of cold air occurs“, has added.

Another of its longer-term effects is that it leads to a greater frequency of rains, as happened, for example, in the spring of 2018. “This is not something that always happens and we cannot know if it will happen on this occasion, because the first thing would have to be to break that polar vortex and then see how the atmosphere evolves,” he insisted.

In any case, “it is necessary to monitor the atmospheric evolution and see how all this evolution takes shape in the coming weeks, because for the moment, It’s too soon to know what will finally happen“.

Regarding the meteorological autumn, a quarter that ends on November 30, the Aemet spokesman has advanced that, with great probability, it will be one of the warmest in the historical series, with an average temperature very close to that of autumn. of 1983, the warmest so far.

In addition, he has concluded, “it cannot be ruled out that it ends up being the warmest in the series”, although we will have to wait until the end of this month to confirm it.

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