“The New Berlin Wall” .. A scenario repeating itself in Ukraine

The West’s attempts to support Ukraine were seen by Kyiv as limited in front of the hopes it was holding, as it wanted a comprehensive economic isolation of Russia, as well as joining NATO and the European Union, and then benefiting from the benefits of Article V of the NATO Treaty out of protection and even requesting the imposition of an air embargo on its airspace, which has become impossible.

The echo of the war in Ukraine has become alarming to Eastern European countries that are close to the events. Therefore, Europe and America hastened to strengthen their military presence there through soldiers and equipment, in an attempt to prevent the fate of Ukraine.

Putin and Stalin’s approach

Austrian political analyst, Gustav C. Grisel, said, “We are facing a new Cold War, and yes we have a new expansionist empire. The Russians want to eliminate Ukraine as a collective identity for its residents, and this requires the destruction of the political and cultural elite, and the end of the work of civil society and other institutions.”

“This is what they will actually do if they can control the country, so Ukraine is resisting with its back to the wall, and it will resist for as long as possible,” C. Gressel added, in statements to “Sky News Arabia.”

He stressed that “there is a major change in the Russian discourse. Moscow believes that it has the right to control a number of countries, and it wants to neutralize a number of eastern European countries and remove NATO weapons from them, and this is what it officially requested last December. Vladimir Putin admires the former Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, And he’s trying to follow his lead.”

change the balance of power

Political analyst Amid Shoukry told Sky News Arabia that the Russian invasion of Ukraine shows that Putin thought long ago before taking such a step, and that Moscow’s policy toward Ukraine was exactly the same as Russia’s policy toward Georgia in 2008.

The Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 led to the partition of Georgia. In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and issued Russian passports to the residents, paving the way for its military deployment in the name of protecting them.

Shoukry, senior foreign policy adviser at the Center for “Gulf States Analytics” (based in Washington), added that given Russia’s readiness, it appears that Moscow is trying to occupy Kyiv, meaning that a new government affiliated with Russia will come to power after the Russian army “occupies” Kyiv under the pretext of combating NATO expansion to the east.

He explained that it is too early to speculate that Europe will face the new Berlin Wall, but that Ukraine will disintegrate after the Russian invasion and occupation of Ukraine (ie the Donbass and Luhansk republics).

He continued, “In the next decade, the balance of power around the world will gradually change. China will be the world’s leading economic power, but in terms of the military dimension, the United States will remain the world’s leading power.”

He pointed out that “the United States and Europe can help Ukraine by sending weapons and imposing additional sanctions on Russia. Russia invaded Ukraine with the aim of occupying it, and if the appropriate response does not come from the West, it can occupy Ukraine completely.”

Italian political analyst, Daniele Ruffnetti, said that “it is clear that relations with Moscow, that is with Vladimir Putin, will practically be cut off. The dialogue with Putin is very complicated at the moment, if not for the sake of calm.”

complicated situation

In statements to “Sky News Arabia”, Rofiniti added that the repercussions of the war will be heavy and complex, “Russian isolation is a factor that must be taken into account in international relations. There are countries in the sphere of influence that can change their behavior, there is gloomy information circulating at the present time about Russian threats.” in the Scandinavian countries.

“In short, in the short term we will see an increase in complex situations and certainly very difficult rhetoric. This will lead to a number of countries making important decisions: for example, it is clear that Georgia is planning to enter the European Union.”

Meanwhile, the US National Interest magazine considered that the Russian military operation against Ukraine raises a fundamental question about whether the Russian president will maintain his pursuit of the ultimate goals, which apparently include regime change in Kyiv.

She said there are important variables that help the observer understand the initial decision of the operation as well as assess Putin’s determination and ability to stay on course. Although Putin’s personality and worldview are of great importance, the opinions and attitudes of the Russian elites and the general public in Russia are also important factors.

dream of “greatness”

She explained that the factors affecting Putin’s decision against Ukraine are rooted in his complaint that the collapse of the Soviet Union led to the loss of Russia’s global and regional influence, as well as the spread of internal chaos.

She pointed out that Putin denounced the United States for a long time for trying to block Russia’s restoration of its status as a great power. He views Western expansion into the former Soviet space as a serious threat to Russia’s core interests and values, including the stability of both the state and the regime.

Putin believes that Ukraine’s trend outside Russia’s orbit towards the democratic west is not a geo-strategic disaster, but rather it constitutes a threat to his rule and a denial of Russia’s historical identity, according to the same source.

Situational factors reinforced the expected costs of the war, Putin’s decision to use force. Ironically, Putin believes that while the West poses a powerful threat, it has also become increasingly weak due to the decline of its political culture, the chronic disarray in its democratic institutions, the rise of China, and America’s apparent retreat from global positions.

Putin’s resolve is also backed by his modernization of Russia’s armed forces and Moscow’s close ties with Beijing. Perhaps the most important source of his determination is his assessment of the internal political risks and benefits associated with the war against Ukraine, according to the American magazine National Interest.

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